Editor's Note: The author: Zhang Zhonglin (civil aviation commentator)
For MAS, this horse is destined to be a troubled year. The flight MH370 lost contact bizarre just out of sight, along with flight MH17 was shot down in eastern regions of Ukraine, Malaysia Airlines will once again pushed the cusp.
Compared has yet to find the cause of MH370 lost contact event, MH17 crash occurred on the evening of July 17 on a lot clearer. The world's major media said in unison flight MH17 in Donetsk region was "BUK" missile shot down. BUK missile that is, "Beech" series of missiles collectively, it is a medium-range radar-guided anti-aircraft missiles, which is a more advanced anti-aircraft missiles, Ukraine and Russia have the capacity to produce such missiles, are also a large number of this type of missile equipment.
Because in recent months have been fighting for independence eastern regions of Ukraine, Donetsk region has become a hot spot area. Flight MH17 was shot down and this will be destined to inflame the situation in Donetsk has been explosive, and Malaysia Airlines will become this year's "Airline of the Year."
When I learned that Flight MH17 incident, consult the next major media news. Out of professional habit, I think first of the three questions. Here on these issues a simple analysis, hoping to be close to the truth.
First, when the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine have exchanged fire conflict, Donetsk over the airspace is closed?
In Donetsk anti-government forces have confrontation with government forces for months, and how military aircraft was shot down by the case, according to common sense, the Ukrainian civil aviation sector will close the airspace over Donetsk. The author also found that in July 8 Ukrainian State Aviation Administration of civil aircraft Close up of special operations in eastern region (of Donetsk region, Luhansk and other areas) airspace. Wait until the return to flight in the area after the situation stabilizes. However, the latest news that the Ukrainian civil aviation authorities had just closed the Donetsk region 330 layers or less (about 10,000 meters), the use of airspace. For more than 330 layers airspace before the accident and not closed. So this issue is very clear, the civil aviation authorities of Ukraine indeed closed the warring airspace ten thousand meters below the Donetsk region, but not completely shut down the airspace war zones, disaster until more than ten thousand meters the airspace is still open.
Second, why MH17 flight still flying the Donetsk region?
The author related website under the MH17 flight routes, as well as today downed MH17 flight routes.
As can be seen from the figure, MH17 flight planning Amsterdam - Kuala Lumpur route when passing through the southeastern part of Ukraine, namely Donetsk region.
A few days ago by the MH17 flight routes and route was shot down when comparing today visible downed MH17 flight routes more northerly route than usual, in the ordinary course of about a hundred kilometers north, MH17 flight was indeed through Ukraine national Civil aviation Authority of Civil aviation flight designated as a restricted area of the Donetsk region, and the region is clearly within the Ukrainian civil aviation flight control zone. As already explained, the scope of the Donetsk region air traffic control layer 330 that is ten thousand meters below the airspace. And when disaster strikes MH17 flight at 340 level (about 10,300 meters) altitude, in theory, does not limit the flight MH17 flight area, but higher than the restricted area 300 meters altitude flight. Although the "300 meters higher than the restricted areas" may be able to circumvent the ban on the success of the Ukrainian Civil Aviation Authority, but can not because the missile to fly high in the 300 meters not hit. Not to mention the theory Beech shot high up to 15,000 meters. Ukrainian Civil Aviation Authority set up precisely to avoid the area this flight of civil aircraft mistakenly hit the incident, but did not completely shut down airspace but left a loophole for people to space, eventually led to this tragedy.
Third, government forces shot down MH17 flight is still the Donetsk region the rebels?
Since beech missile system equipped with a wide range of Russia and the former Soviet Union, the Ukrainian military also has a large number of this type of missile (during the Russia-Georgia war in Ukraine to Georgia beech missile to shoot down Russian planes had also). However, "beech" missile is undertaken in the Russian army field air defense mission level units, generally not involved in homeland defense operations. Usually perform combat duty, the Russian Air Force's S-300 missile series. So this is unlikely to shoot down aircraft missiles is the Russian beech emitted.
The Donetsk regional militias, although they repeatedly shot down by anti-aircraft missiles and aircraft and helicopters Ukrainian government forces, but are using man-portable air defense missiles, such as the "Arrow 3", "needle" type or the like. Such man-portable air defense missile has an effective range of only one or two kilometers can not threaten civilian aircraft flying altitude of 10,000 meters.
However, there are reports that a small amount of Donetsk militia mastered "beech" missiles and "beech" missile theoretically also have cycling capability. But in the absence of professional and technical personnel of the case, whether the militia can play combat capability of these missiles is probably questionable.
October 4, 2001, the Ukrainian military use S-200 missile system to shoot down Russian Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 in an exercise. Ukrainian military accidentally shot in the civil aircraft has a very shameful record. We have this "misdeeds", can not help but think they suspect larger.
Based on the information disclosed is currently out, I generally presumed MH17 incident as follows:
July 17, Malaysia Airlines MH17 flight was scheduled to take off at 12:00, do Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur route. Plan to arrive in Kuala Lumpur at six o'clock the next morning. After a delay of 14 minutes at 12:14 local time off. Then along a predetermined route flight MH17 flew into the territory of Ukraine, Ukraine entered the flight control zone.
However, for reasons not yet known, MH17 flight captain in spite of the ban on flights of Civil Aviation on the east Ukraine aviation authorities 10 days before the release, the leap is classified as a restricted area of civil aviation and are fighting in the Donetsk region. When close to the border between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is likely to be beech missile launch military shot down, killing all 295 on board.
In my opinion, the aircraft pilot performance in this event, only "reckless", "stupid" or even "seek death" to describe. As to why they would make such a performance, I am afraid that the next important phase of the survey mysteries to unravel. At least, as a "safety first" doctrine of civil aviation practitioners, I did not understand that they are to hit theaters in behavior.
Compared MH370 flight has not yet been found, the flight MH17 crashed in a densely populated land, and clear cause of the accident, I believe that can quickly find the black box of the aircraft, reducing the whole scene of the incident. MAS can hope this responsible attitude, a statement to the victims, let the dead rest in peace.
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